What is the reason for the change in Guaidó’s discourse and his ‘lowering of his head’ before Maduro?

This week Juan Guaidó made all the headlines and it was not because of his scandals or links with drug trafficking networks, paramilitarism and corruption, this time it was because he lowered his head before the president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, and because he requested to enter into dialogue with the Venezuelan government.

The RT journalist, Nazareth Balbás, carried out an analysis of these facts and describes several reasons for the radical change in the discourse of the former ‘self-proclaimed’ who has lost all kinds of acceptance within the different opposition factions.

Juan Guaidó’s political shares are down, explains Balbás. On Tuesday, the opposition politician sent a message that dislodged his followers because he contradicted the hard line of his discourse against the Chavismo and, in addition, proposed an «agreement» that would include the lifting of the US sanctions.

That pact, according to Guaidó, foresees «the convening of a schedule of free and fair elections», the search for «realistic and viable» solutions to the country’s crisis, and the establishment of guarantees for all parties, in a negotiation where international organizations and «world powers» would participate.

The irruption of this proposal is not accidental or improvised. The signs that there is an underground negotiation between the government and opposition factors, beyond Guaidó, are evident and have yielded results. One of the most representative signs of this rapprochement is the recent appointment of a new board of directors of the National Electoral Council (CNE), in which key anti-Chavez figures participate, such as Enrique Márquez, belonging to the UNT party, and Roberto Picón, who was imprisoned in 2017 , accused of rebellion, treason and theft of military objects.

Those same political factors, without too much noise, have achieved conquests that Guaidó cannot presume as his own. In addition, since January, the former deputy has done nothing but reap setbacks, such as the loss of his seat as a member of parliament and the withdrawal of recognition from the European Union (EU) as «interim president». Faced with this scenario, the last card of the ‘interim’, to stay afloat, is to play by the new rules of the White House tenant.

Guaidó negotiates on two bands

If in 2019, an unknown and self-proclaimed Guaidó promised «the cessation of usurpation, transitional government and free elections», the former deputy now calls for an «agreement to save Venezuela», which would include the lifting of US sanctions, the mechanism of «maximum pressure» that the radical opposition defended to provoke the departure of Maduro.

For some analysts consulted by this medium, a ‘two-band’ negotiation may open in Venezuela: a slow one, with Guaidó; and another, a quick one, with opposition figures who do not belong to the G-4 (Acción Democrática, Primero Justicia, Voluntad Popular and Un Nuevo Tiempo political parties).

On the one hand, Guaidó could use the support that he still has from Washington to try to negotiate a «comprehensive agreement» with the government, and thus take the lead from the opposition sectors that have already opened channels of dialogue.

And on the other, the opposition dissatisfied with the failure of Guaidó’s policy would be at the forefront of the «partial dialogues» with the Maduro administration, with a view to ensuring the conditions they consider ideal to participate in the next regional and municipal elections. The main negotiators in this sector, who prefer to take advantage of any possibility of political dispute, would be the former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski and the former vice president of Parliament, Stalin González.

The issue is that the elections, which have already been confirmed for this year, are a key point. The large number of positions for popular election are appetizing for an opposition that, in the last two years, has done nothing more than cede spaces of representation to the Chavismo due to the abstentionism policy of Guaidó, who bet on «all or nothing». And the former deputy knows it.

For this reason, in his message on Tuesday, Guaidó assured that he understood the struggle to achieve «new electoral conditions», but was unaware of any effort that would be achieved without him. Furthermore, he accused the current negotiating factors of «conspiring with the dictatorship» to establish themselves as a «loyal opposition to that tyranny».

Get out of the «catastrophic» tie

Calls for dialogue in Venezuela are almost as frequent as their failure, which is why, on this occasion, secrecy seems to prevail over the negotiations. Furthermore, the agreements reached in the volatile national scenario require the utmost prudence on the part of the interlocutors.

However, what is clear is the disposition of the competing factors to get out of the «catastrophic tie», that is, that scenario where the opposition controls the mechanism of economic asphyxia for the country, by means of the blockade, but without exercising control over the political power; and the Chavismo maintains its hegemony in the State, but does not have international room for maneuver. In that dispute, the Venezuelan people are the ones who bear the worst, with a country severely affected by the sanctions and with a fragile institutional framework.

The path in which both the Government and a good part of the most representative sectors of the opposition seem to coincide is in the re-institutionalization of the country, and the first step has already been taken with the appointment of the new CNE. The next elections would be the new step, but on that path, anything can happen.

Guaidó, who carries the burden of insurrectionary defeats and the «devastating effect» of the sanctions he encouraged, is trying to do damage control in a country that, due to those same coercive measures, has had difficulties paying for vaccines against the coronavirus, buy food, medical supplies and sell its main export product: oil. In his attempt, not to find himself permanently out of the game, he now advocates «seriousness» and «empathy» to address the crisis.

«Everything we have sacrificed has brought us here», he said Tuesday night, and Maduro responded immediately. The Venezuelan president asserted that the proposal was not news because there is already an advanced dialogue «between the opposition and Bolivarianism», a process to which he invited him (Guaido) to join. «Now he is desperate (…) he comes out today to say that he wants dialogue because he was left out of everything, isolated and defeated (…) The only thing he can do is join the dialogue that already exists, not believe that he is going to lead the country that doesn’t even recognize him», declared Maduro.

However, it could be that the White House has the last word. So far, the Biden administration has maintained a pragmatic stance on Venezuela, acknowledging the ineffectiveness of sanctions (which were so fiercely defended in the Trump era) and advocating a political, not a forceful solution. A change of cadence that does not leave the Venezuelan opposition indifferent, which dances to the sound that is played in Washington.