Is Venezuela heading towards a political normality?

On November 21, the so-called mega-elections will be held in Venezuela, where all the governorates (24) and mayors (335) must be elected, in addition to 251 deputies from the legislative councils and 2459 municipal councilors. Basically, almost the entire Venezuelan political-territorial structure.

Ociel Alí López, sociologist, political analyst and professor at the Central University of Venezuela, explains in a report for RT that the next Venezuelan electoral event could be seen as one more of the many elections that take place in Venezuela, but, by the way things are moving, it invites us to think that, unlike previous electoral events such as the regional (2017), presidential (2018) and legislative (2020) events, in this one the political fervor could return to the process. The participation of a significant number of opposition figures and parties is expected, which on those previous electoral occasions adopted an abstentionist policy that has distanced them from institutional spaces for several years.

The appointment of the new National Electoral Council (CNE) in May of this year, where radical opposition sectors have had a seat, like the new principal rector Roberto Picón, was the trigger that began a new opposition political approach. Important actors who had abided by the abstentionist line, like the former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, were enthusiastic defenders of the names designated for the electoral body and from there, they made calls to participate.

Faced with criticism from radical sectors related to Juan Guaidó, who remain skeptical, the new CNE board of directors has shown to possess a dose of autonomy, to the extent that it decided on an electoral date different from that proclaimed by pro-government sectors and its vice president began a diatribe against the media and the emblematic programs of the ruling party.

Picón recently mentioned the efforts being made by the new CNE to eliminate the political disqualifications that govern opposition leaders, in order to encourage them to participate in the electoral event. In fact, there are already several of them on the lists of candidates.

Opposition majority in Venezuela bets on the vote

The president of the CNE, Pedro Calzadilla, has confirmed that the card of the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (Democratic Unity Table – MUD), which led the opposition to victory in 2015, would once again enter the electoral arena, from where it came out due to non-participation of the factors that made it up.

The directory has also declared itself against the installation of «awnings» in the vicinity of the polling stations, which was an insistent demand from the entire opposition due to the use that the ruling party gave to these «awnings|, in controlling voting and electoral participation. in previous events.

Thus, in recent days there has been a cascade of decisions in which the government gives in to opposition demands and the electoral institutions deepen their role as referee trying to generate credibility and conditions.

In the same way, President Nicolás Maduro announced on Monday the end of the protectorates, a kind of parallel governorates that he appointed in the states where the ruling party lost electorally (another issue constantly denounced by the opposition and its constituents). All of this could help unfreeze the Venezuelan political environment.

The EU, the US and Canada have acknowledged their willingness to review the sanctions, something that since 2018 had been ruled out by the radical opposition in a very solid manner. However, the radical sectors of Guaidó are still playing a ‘waiting game’ and have not given the green light to their regional and local leaders to launch themselves into positions of popular representation. The opposition parties are under strong pressure from these ‘grass roots’ leaderships, which have been staying out of representative positions basically due to the abstentionist doctrine.

Some sectors have decided to launch their own platform so as not to depend on the decision of the party leadership, such as the case of the current mayor of the Chacao municipality (emblematic of the opposition), Gustavo Duque, who has launched his own political party, called Fuerza Vecinal, which will now have a national reach. While the traditional opposition leaders decide, the opposition adds candidates from all its internal currents. Some are waiting for the approval of their leaders to make them public, while others like Américo da Grazia have already openly promoted it.

New approach to Venezuela

Other factors that help to reactivate internal politics have to do with the discursive turn of pro-abstentionist governments in the Venezuelan case. The European Union, which until last year supported Guaidó, secretly supported the military coup of April 2019 and refused to participate as an observer in the last legislative and presidential elections, decided to send a commission to study its inclusion in the observance of the November electoral process.

The arrival of this commission, on July 6, can be understood as the first step by Europeans to break the ice in terms of their desire to participate, after they promoted abstentionism as a way to support the lines emanating from the US government of the Republican Donald Trump.

Likewise, a joint statement between the governments of the European Union, the United States and Canada, published at the end of last week, identifies a negotiated and electoral solution to the Venezuelan conflict as the only scenario. In the document, they have acknowledged that they are willing to review the sanctions, something that since 2018 had been ruled out by these foreign forces, and always, in a very solid manner by the radical opposition.

Under this new panorama, Guaidó created a commission a couple of weeks ago that is traveling through the US and Europe to discuss «with its allies» the removal of sanctions and possibly, also the participation in the elections. Meanwhile, the ruling party is preparing itself for the elections.

Internal elections in the PSUV

For its part, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), has called for internal elections to choose its candidates in a democratic process that has not occurred since 2010, when they were convened by the historical leader Hugo Chávez under the slogan «Con las bases me resteo » («I pledge myself with the grassroots movements»). After that, the internal elections were demanded by sectors of the party, but they had not occurred until the present event.

Internal elections could re-enthuse critical and apathetic sectors of the party in order to regain the number of voters from the golden years of the Chavismo. The first phase of the internal elections took place last weekend, when the party’s militants nominated some 60,000 candidates on a day marked by some surprises and also some complaints.

The current decisions, of the opposition, the government and the CNE, can promote the return of the masses to politics, from where they have been withdrawing for more than five years. These complaints can be seen as evidence of democratic obstruction but, regardless of this, they reveal the open participation of different internal currents and, in addition, oxygenation of the Chavista participation, which can end up being a strength (for this electoral process).

The second stage will take place on August 8, the date on which the official party will choose its final candidates by means of a universal election, that is, anyone registered in the national electoral roll, even if they are not registered in the party, will be able to choose the candidates for governors, mayors and representatives of the legislative and municipal councils of the governing party.

The Venezuelan political system has had high percentages of abstention in the last parliamentary and presidential elections, reaching figures never seen in the country (75% and 54% respectively). Although this does not nullify or take away the legitimacy of the process, it does account for a discredit of politics and of the representatives by the voters.