Brazil: The possible consequences for Bolsonaro after the accusations of the Senate for his management of the pandemic

The Brazilian Senate committee approved a report on Tuesday in which it recommended indicting President Jair Bolsonaro for nine crimes because of his management of the health crisis during the pandemic, which has left more than 606,000 dead in the country.

Although the question now is to what extent the work of the senators will affect this extreme right leader, many analysts agree that Bolsonaro continues to have numerous support in Congress and that it is most unlikely that the complaints will affect him at the judicial level.

Shortly after the vote, without mentioning the investigation, former US President Donald Trump sent a message of support to Bolsonaro. Meanwhile, this Wednesday, Bolsonaro in an interview with TV Jovem, described the commission as «horseplay», but acknowledged that outside of Brazil «the image is terrible» and it is affecting the economy, explains a report by Marta Miera for RT .

The report, in which 78 other people are also accused, including three of the president’s sons, affirms that, through his statements and actions, Bolsonaro deliberately exposed the population to mass contagion.

According to the document, Bolsonaro was responsible for epidemic crimes resulting in death; violation of preventive sanitary measures; quack healers; incitement to crime; forgery of private documents; irregular use of public funds; prevarication; crime of responsibility and crime against humanity.

The first seven accusations are common crimes, with prison sentences or a fine, while crimes of responsibility can lead to an ‘impeachment’ process in Congress and crimes against humanity can lead him to be tried before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, in Holland.

The crimes reported and the next steps

But the commission does not have the power to denounce and its conclusions will be sent to the competent bodies, such as the General Prosecutor’s Office, the Court of Auditors or the International Criminal Court in The Hague for further investigations.

With regard to common crimes, the complaints were filed on Wednesday with the Attorney General of the Republic, Augusto Aras, one of the president’s allies and who has the power to file criminal actions against him. Aras will have 30 days to present the complaints before the Supreme Federal Court (STF), but he can choose to archive the case.

But the crimes of responsibility must go before the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira, another of the president´s great allies, and it does not seem that he will accept a request for ‘impeachment’.

Crimes against humanity depend on the International Criminal Court and, according to O Globo, an eventual process could take between five and 15 years to materialize.

The biggest impact: the elections in Brazil

The ones that analysts do agree on, is that the greatest impact for Bolsonaro will be in the October 2022 elections. Polls have pointed to former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the favorite for months, who so far has not confirmed his candidacy. .

With hunger hitting the most vulnerable population in Brazil, a rise in gasoline of almost 40% in the last 12 months and an inflation that stood at 10.25% in September, criticism is raining down on Bolsonaro – whose popularity has plummeted – in the economic sphere.

“The Brazilians are now saying that the Executive does not have the capacity to manage the economy. Inflation on the rise, with the weight more concentrated in food, electricity and fuel, wears down the image of the President of the Republic», recently pointed out the political analyst Valdo Cruz.