Brazil: The key points to understanding the presidential ballot between Lula and Bolsonaro

Brazil is on edge. The largest economy in Latin America faces the closest presidential ballot in its recent history on October 30.

Just days before the outcome, two antagonistic leaders, former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who leads the polls, and current president Jair Bolsonaro, who is closing the gap, burn their last cartridges to seduce the undecided, in a context of growing tension, reviews RT.

These are some key points to the elections:1. Two opposing leaders

Since Lula was released from prison in November 2019, where he remained for a year and seven months after being convicted of corruption in several cases that were later annulled, and was profiled as a candidate, it was sensed that Brazil would live its most polarized electoral campaign of its recent history. And so it has been.

Both Lula and President Jair Bolsonaro are strong leaders who arouse passions among their faithful, to the point that they have generated a consolidated phenomena from their people: Lulism and Bolsonarism. They embody two faces of Brazil, two visions of the future, in the political, social and economic spheres.

Lula affirms that the far-right president is «a fascist who is related to militiamen and organized crime» and that he is «a compulsive liar» who caused «a genocide» for his questionable management of the pandemic.

For his part, Bolsonaro assures that the leftist ex-president is a «thief» and a «devil» who wants to «impose a communist regime» in Brazil.

The clash between their followers has left a trail of a violent campaign, with at least three followers of the Workers’ Party (PT) killed in political disputes with Bolsonaristas.2. Will Bolsonaro accept an eventual defeat?

This is the big question mark of the campaign. Bolsonaro, in tune with former US President Donald Trump, has spent years sowing doubts, without evidence, about the reliability of the electronic voting system that Brazil has used since 1996, which has had and has a strong international recognition as being very reliable. He maintains that the polls are vulnerable and calls for a «printed and auditable vote».

In his campaign to discredit, which has earned him the opening of an investigation in the Supreme Court for the dissemination of false news, he has repeatedly said that he will accept the results as long as the elections are «clean and transparent» and has relentlessly attacked the judges of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), whom he has turned into villains in the eyes of his militancy.

All this sparks fears that he will not accept an eventual defeat, that he will call on his followers to protest against the TSE and that this will lead to street riots, as it happened with the invasion of the Capitol in Washington in January 2021, when Trump did not accept his defeat. in front of current president Joe Biden.3. Errors in the polls in Brazil

In the first round, on October 2, Lula won with 48.43% of the votes, a percentage within the margin of error expected in the main polls, such as Datafolha or Ipec, some of which even spoke of a victory of the former president that day, with more than 50%.

But with the extreme right they were completely wrong. They predicted 35 or 36% of the votes for Bolsonaro and he achieved 43.2%. This may be due to the hidden vote, in part a consequence of the campaign to discredit the pollsters waged by the president. «What matters is the ‘Datapueblo’, may the best man win», he said when voting in the first round.

Bolsonaro has gained momentum in recent weeks. For now, however, the polls give Lula the victory with, between, 52 and 54% of the votes. What is clear is that the polls will leave a country completely divided.

On October 30, Brazilians will choose the governors of 12 states that failed to decide in the first round, including Sao Paulo, the ‘economic engine’ and largest electoral college in Brazil, which will experience a small-scale clash between the Bolsonarista candidate and the Lulista .4. Dirty war on the social networks

The Brazilian electoral justice tried to avoid it, but once again the campaign has led to a dirty war on social networks, especially in the second round. Lies, insults, unfounded accusations and manipulated videos have circulated wildly from the circles of Lula and Bolsonaro, with digital guerrilla tactics.

The TSE ordered dozens of publications to be removed, but after they had been viewed and shared millions of times.5. Who would have it easier in governing Brazil?

Looking ahead to the ballot, the two candidates have added support of a similar magnitude. Lula received, among others, the favor of the center-right Simone Tebet and the center-left Ciro Gomes and a dozen governors of minor states.

Bolsonaro, however, won the support of numerous congressmen, including senator and former minister Sergio Moro, the visible head of the Lava Jato anti-corruption mega-operation, and the governors of the three main electoral colleges, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro.

But when you think about who would have an easier time governing, the answer is Bolsonaro. The first round left a Congress much more conservative and related to the current president, whose formation, the Liberal Party, is the one that won the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Senate.

If the rest of the parties that usually support him are taken into account, the president could add a majority of votes to carry out controversial projects in environmental matters or in favor of weapons.

Lula, for his part, would have a much stronger opposition and would be forced to negotiate and yield more.6. The Brazilian Amazon at stake

One of the most relevant issues of the campaign is the Amazon, which is at stake in these elections. The so-called «lung of the planet», vital, according to scientists to stop climate change, has suffered more deforestation and fires since Bolsonaro came to power in 2018.

Environmentalists attribute this decline to the president’s speech in favor of the commercial exploitation of indigenous reserves and other protected areas and thus allow the advancement of the powerful Brazilian agribusiness.

Lula has promised during the campaign to reverse the «destruction of the jungle» policies approved by the current president. But if Bolsonaro wins, with the support he has in Congress, he could approve projects that were stalled in his first legislature, such as the one that allows mining on indigenous lands.7. Brazil ‘surrounded’ by the left wing governments

Latin America has its eyes on the Brazilian elections. A victory for Lula would seal the leftist turn that the region undertook years ago, with the arrival of Andrés Manuel López Obrador to power in Mexico (2018), Alberto Fernández in Argentina (2019), Luis Arce in Bolivia (2020), Xiomara Castro in Honduras (2021), Pedro Castillo in Peru (2021) and, in this 2022, by Gabriel Boric and Gustavo Petro in Chile and Colombia.

Brazil and Argentina, the two most important partners of Mercosur, would have governments of the same sign and could iron out differences. Bolsonaro, a declared ‘anti-leftist’, has not stopped criticizing almost all those leaders, so if he wins it does not seem that things will change in that sense.