Dialogue in Venezuela: the reasons that could finally seal an agreement between the Government and the opposition

With the restart, expected for this weekend, of the negotiations between the Venezuelan government and the opposition represented in the Unitarian Platform (PU) in Mexico, expectations of economic and political normalization in the Caribbean country through dialogue are rising.

Until now, the dialogue, which has had Norway as a mediator, has not left significant balances and has resoundingly failed on different occasions, says the Venezuelan sociologist and political analyst Ociel Alí López in an opinion article for RT.

However, there are new variables at play that suggest that this time there is a greater chance of closing an agreement and accelerating the regularization of the Venezuelan oil trade, as well as the diplomatic relations of the country, plagued by internal diatribes and the international blockade.

These are the new reasons that could allow an agreement:

1. World crisis in the commercialization of energy materials

The main existing modification regarding the conditions for a dialogue in Venezuela is the geopolitical issue and the problems that have been generated this year in the commercialization of oil and gas in the world.

Venezuelan oil, (the country has the largest reserves in the world) is no longer expendable for the West and is beginning to emerge as a potential reliable and lasting source of energy supply.

French President Emmanuel Macron has become a kind of key figure on the Venezuela issue. In 2019, he not only recognized Juan Guaidó as president, but also received him at the Elysée Palace. He now shook hands with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at COP 27 and managed to seat the parties on November 10 in Paris, which can be considered a precedent for the meeting in Mexico this weekend.

With Saudi Arabia moving away from the West in terms of oil policy, Venezuela could emerge as a key link in the battered energy supply chain.

For all this, if international pressure was previously based on overthrowing President Maduro, today it is focused on seeking agreements to stabilize Venezuelan oil production.2. The mid-term elections in the US

Although during the current year the energy crisis has required the inclusion of Venezuela in the oil market, what finally made a change in the way Washington  wants to relate itself with Venezuela is produced by the mid-term election in the US and also its result.

It seemed logical that until said event was fulfilled, the government of President Joe Biden would be very cautious with the Venezuela issue due to a foreseeable political cost, understanding that the disregard for Maduro became a consensus between the two political parties.

Once the elections were over, Washington had much more freedom to act on this issue. The unexpected triumph in the Senate of the Democratic Party allows the Government to increase its capacity for maneuver.

In addition, if we see the result of Florida, in which the Republican Ron DeSantis prevailed with a wide margin, it could be interpreted that this is no longer a defining and contending state as it was in previous elections in which a small margin of local advantage could allow a candidate take the presidential chair.

Now, Florida happens to be a state where the Republicans have an irrefutable solidity, and therefore, it ceases to be a space in dispute for the Democrats. Always remembering that one of the reasons for Washington’s strong initiative against Venezuela has to do with the conquest of the Latino vote in Florida.

This being the case, now the government party does not have to make major concessions to the Latino electorate in Florida and will have a better chance of responding to pressure from oil companies such as Chevron, which considers it profitable to restart production in Venezuela to achieve results in stabilizing the oil market. 

3. The “mantra” comes out of the dialogue

The Venezuelan opposition, after so many blows, mistakes and defeats, has matured its agenda and has removed from it every vestige that reminds us of that famous mantra that placed the «cessation of the usurpation» and the «transitional government» as its non-extendable demands.

In other words, the opposition began its political confrontation with Maduro with the idea that the dialogue implied a capitulation of the Venezuelan government, but today things seem to be diametrically opposed.

The opposition seems to be more aware that, first, it no longer has the strength that its international allies used to generate. Basically, once Donald Trump is removed from the presidency, it has been left without weighty sponsors.

So now they have much more pragmatic demands. They have changed a maximalist agenda for a minimalist one that includes basic conditions to be able to operate electorally without so many disadvantages, especially after its abstentionist policy has left it without institutional political weight and since many of its leaders have been disqualified and its political parties intervened. by public powers.

All this makes their willingness to reach minimum agreements much more feasible compared to their original demands.4. Liquidity problems in the Government

On this occasion, the dialogue could also advance because, regardless of whether there has been some economic improvement in Venezuela, oil production is still very low, the State oil industry (PDVSA) was unable to meet its own objectives in terms of increasing production and the State still suffers from a significant financial weakness that prevents it from offering fairly decent salaries (they are still the lowest in the entire region) and from fulfilling its role as guarantor of rights.

Therefore, the Government must seek fresh financing and at the same time an international investment that leverages its oil production.

All of this is offered by the dialogue table.5. The end of the blockade is on the table

Although Washington had given some timid signs of wanting to amend its policies against Venezuela (it had excluded a high-ranking official from the sanctioned list, exchanged prisoners with the Venezuelan government and allowed the sale of oil –even with many limitations– to some European companies such as Eni and Repsol), the beginning of the negotiations is especially awaited due to the green light that the Treasury Department could grant to the Chevron company so that it resumes with force its operations in Venezuela, which would mean the beginning of the dismantling of the architecture of sanctions that weigh on the country.

An offer of this magnitude by the US government is appetizing for the Venezuelan government, which needs a powerful signal to fully enter into economic normalization and the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with the Western world.6. The arrival of Petro to the dialogue

The Colombian Government, who was the most bellicose actor against the Venezuelan Government, has changed its political sign. Barely beginning his government, President Gustavo Petro has produced a radical shift in relations, becoming a pivot for the international recognition of President Maduro.

Petro, in the few months of his mandate, has turned diplomatic relations upside down: he has returned the Monómeros company to the Venezuelan State, he has visited Caracas, and together with President Macron and Argentine President Alberto Fernández, he has managed to sit down with the parties in Paris.7. Presidential elections in the dialogue?

Already the presidential elections, constitutionally scheduled for 2024, do not seem so far away. Especially when the Government has left open the possibility of an early election.

So, on the one hand, the Government requires fresh money and positive projections to be able to enter an electoral campaign producing expectations of real improvement, which is difficult with the current lack of liquidity.

On the other hand, what the opposition is demanding are no longer chimerical and illusory ideas, but rather minimum conditions to participate in the electoral contest.

Apparently, now both sides require an agreement and the country, tired of the diatribe and the crisis, asks its politicians for enough responsibility to achieve it quickly with this dialogue.

For all these reasons, there are greater conditions for negotiation and it is more likely that this meeting in Mexico will not end like the previous ones.