What are the implications of Alex Saab’s extradition to the US?

The extradition from Cape Verde to the United States of the Colombian businessman, diplomat and recently appointed member of the negotiating table by the Venezuelan Government, Alex Saab, arrested in June 2020, accounts as an attack against the dialogue that takes place in Mexico between the Executive of Nicolás Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition, with the mediation of the Kingdom of Norway.

It is an attack insofar as it means a new interference by the US Government, hours before starting a new round of negotiations. The US argues that Saab does business with the Venezuelan Government for the purchase of food and considers that sufficient reason to lock him up, states the Venezuelan sociologist and political analyst, Ociel Alí López in an article published by RT.

For López, “there is something that we still cannot understand and it will be known in the next few days. We are referring to whether this action belongs to a reflection of the power of Trumpism in the deep State (of the US) or if it is the Government of President Joe Biden that is behind it».

Although the businessman was unknown to Venezuelan public opinion until his capture in Cape Verde, today, his extradition tests the continuity of the negotiating table with which Venezuelans hope to achieve political and economic normalization in their country. .

There are many actors, especially conservatives and Republicans, as well as the Cuban and Venezuelan right wing ‘lobby’, who do not agree with the negotiating table and consider it is giving «oxygen» to the Venezuelan government.

While the US government has shown some timid signs of wanting the dialogue, it has not pushed for it enthusiastically either. This means that, just as Washington has intensified the degrees of pressure against the Maduro administration since the proclamation of an interim «president«, it is also possible that Washington, very easily, can put an end to the attempts of Mexico that are supported by others. global actors such as the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), Norway and several Latin American countries, among which the host, Mexico, stands out.

It is worth highlighting something that symbolically has tremendous significance, that it was a Florida court that carried out the extradition request, the US state where the powerful Cuban and Venezuelan right wing lobbies that reject the negotiations, are located.

Who is affected by the extradition of Saab

The first thing we must warn is that this extradition does not greatly affect the Venezuelan government as such, which will only have one ‘partner’ in a US prison. Who it does affect, fundamentally, and who it paralyzes, politically, is the Venezuelan opposition.

Let us remember that the third round of negotiations in Mexico, a few weeks ago, ended without an agreement since the Venezuelan Government demanded, in exchange for the concessions it has granted, important signs from the counterpart, especially in the economic area and with the sanctions that were imposed against the country.

What happened in that round was that it became clear that the opposition itself has nothing to offer at the table, since the main demand by the Venezuelan government has to do with the reduction or elimination of economic sanctions, as the liberation of the assets of the Venezuelan State by third countries.

The Venezuelan State delegation demanded that those countries, especially the US, put something on the table to unlock the game, since, for their part, several opposition leaders who were in exile are, today, already campaigning in the streets to contest a position of popular election in the upcoming mega-elections of November 21, in which all the mayors and governors of the country will be elected. In addition, all opposition parties have decided to participate, even those that publicly supported the military coup of April 30, 2019, among many other events that had as an objective to remove the elected President Maduro from power..

It should also be remembered that in mid-September, when a Cape Verde court declared the businessman’s last possible appeal inadmissible, the Venezuelan government appointed him as part of its delegation to the negotiating table.

In other words, this was a case that was already on the rampage around the negotiations, and finally, the fact that his extradition took place hours before the start of the fourth round in Mexico is not a mere coincidence. Quite simply, the US kicked the table just when it should rather send some positive signal for the progress of the dialogue.

Now we will have to wait and see how a necessary recomposition of international actors, who are interested in reoxygenating the table, occurs. Something will have to be put on the negotiation table to resume the course of dialogue.

At the moment, the opposition cannot advance in its new political strategy as its entire development depends fundamentally on negotiations.

The opposition electoral route can only fully continue with the acceptance of the Venezuelan government, since the opposition leadership is disqualified or in exile after the events of the military coup of April 30. In addition, those already in the electoral campaign could be disqualified, or even arrested, in response to the extradition, since they have several open legal cases.

Even Juan Guaidó, who carries on with his  political life in the country, and some members of the table such as Freddy Guevara, who was recently released, today ,could become a change token for Alex Saab himself. 
Without negotiations, the margin of action of the opposition is seriously limited and rather, a new advance of measures from the Venezuelan government could come to adjust the margin much more.

Government response on Saab

Maduro’s administration was quick to respond to the Saab case, although other actions on its part are also possible.

On the one hand, the Venezuelan delegation announced that it would not attend the negotiation round that was about to begin in Mexico, so the continuity of the negotiations is on hold.

On the other, the Venezuelan State again jailed six of the former directors of Citgo, a Venezuelan oil company based in the US. These are Venezuelans who have US citizenship and who were under house arrest, after being in prison, as a gesture of the Venezuelan government for the dialogue when the Biden administration was just beginning.

In the absence of new reactions that are located on a more electoral terrain (disqualifications, detention of candidates or members of the polling station, etc.), the Venezuelan Government will show that it is interested in continuing to consolidate the electoral scenario of the opposition despite the aggressions of the United States. But as we said, without an institutionalized and active negotiating table, electoral conditions will be at risk, and the new opposition strategy, ‘post-trump’, will enter a time of greater uncertainty and weakness, until negotiations are restarted.